Worst Case Scenario

"...There's an odd, set, stony quality to it.  It's as if tomorrow has already happened, and there's nothing you can do about it." 

~ Buford's Speech Before Battle of Gettysburg ~

Welcome (back?!) to Missives From The Damned my friends.  In the 'comments' section of the recent post entitled, Happy New Year: Now What?, my target audience for that missive is described as "the average individual who, like myself, is just looking to get their feet planted on firm ground again."  This post assumes a somewhat different trajectory.

On this day, Inauguration Day 2017, my words are instead carefully chosen for a select few.  Today, I write for the thinkers, the ones who have been paying attention.  This post also seeks to find those who have been paying attention, but lack clarity, and/or seek greater insight into what they are seeing.  Finally, this missive is conceived for those who haven't been paying enough attention, know that, and now want to learn 'what' is important to begin to pay attention to.  After reading this, you can decide which group you fall in.  As always, I urge you to follow the links in the text below for a greater understanding of what you read here.

My initial foray into political commentary took place during the run-up to the 2012 Obama v. Romney general election.  At that time, in another forum, I began to sound warning bells concerning the country's divided population, about something I then vaguely referred to as a "coming storm." After the election, I got more specific, speaking out against 'right-wing hate speech,' which I believed would result in even further social division, eventually birthing an undesirable outcome for all Americans.

Flash forward to today, Inauguration Day 2017, and the increase in social division has clearly manifested.  Now, this division seems to be polarized mainly between two distinct camps, described here briefly for heuristic purposes as:  1.  Liberals, who didn't believe for a moment that Trump had a chance to win (like myself admittedly, didn't think we were "there" yet), and have quickly reacted to become self-proclaimed 'Leaders of the Resistance,' and  2.  Conservatives who believe Trump will keep his promises, and are basking in their dreams of a glorious future.  In my sincerest opinion, neither side is prepared for what's probably coming.

Photo editing by Charles Garrett

Think of this next part as a "what-if" story of sorts.  For brevity's sake, I must forgo mention of  my bona-fides in the form of my deeply personal connections to much of this, and dozens more details, that I truly hope you are able to "fill-in" for yourselves.  I'm as 'real' as you are, and available for future discussion in the comment section or via email 'anytime.'  Now, gather 'round, and I'll run it down.

Worst Case Scenario...and it's happening right now

Trump and his followers have made their intentions plain, and we're all getting an idea of what that's starting to look like, and how they plan to get it done.  In a huge nutshell, some of the plans are to repeal and replace all things Obama, gut Social Security and Medicare, implement huge tax cuts for the wealthy, deregulate all things Energy and Environment, eliminate arts, humanities, and social programs, put 'one of their guys' on the Supreme Court, repeal Roe v. Wade, end marriage equality, rebuild the infrastructure to the tune of a trillion dollars, penalize corporations that move jobs overseas, 'rebuild' the military, cozy up to Putin and Russia, start a trade war with China and a new nuclear arms race, etc.  All in all, a pretty tall order, even with the Republican majorities currently in place.

These subjects are ALL worthy of blistering argument, and it's fun to believe the Executive Branch of our government wields certain power(s).  However, let's drop pretense here and now; that time has past.  Since December 23, 1913, there has been an elephant-in-the-room-sized variable involved within US political and economic reality that no President may control, and which may yet prove a hindrance to Trump's agenda:  The Federal Reserve.

The Fed’s balance sheet swelled to $4.5 trillion in 2014 from about $900 billion in 2008 on purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, during three stages of a strategy known as quantitative easing.  During this same time frame (and still) the Fed also kept interest rates at practically 0%.  These actions are the real cause of current stock and bond market inflation.

Photo editing by Charles Garrett

This all points to a Federal Reserve poised to raise rates in 2017 as needed, reduce credit and lending generally, and to adjust rates proportionally as an anti-inflationary measure against Trump's trillion dollar infrastructure scheme along the way.  The battle lines appear clearly drawn, with Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen securely in place until 2018.

Everything could be just fine.  The problem will come, when/if the narcissist-in-chief doesn't take kindly to not getting his way.  It's obvious that he has absolutely no intention of waiting until 2018 and beyond to accomplish certain goals.  We've also had a good long look at his temperament, and disdain for rules, and know full well that he will stoop to ANY depths to 'win.'

If Trump & Co. decide to go all in, between now and Yellen's departure, and take on the Fed, in geopolitical terms particularly, the consequences could be world-changing.  The dollar, currently stable, could quickly once again find itself in danger of losing its preferential status as the world's currency reserve.  This type of economic downturn, coupled with current social unrest, the situations in the Middle East, an unstable EU, and an unpredictable President, make for an extremely heady brew.

Here at home, one can easily imagine stepped-up violence during the current escalation of political protest, or another racially charged, powder-keg incident involving law enforcement, such as the ones that inspired the riots in L.A. and more recently Baltimore, and Ferguson.  Words or actions signalling approval or encouragement and/or support from Trump, the 'law and order' President, could swiftly usher-in a full police crackdown.  All accomplished with the smiling approval of a rabid base, who have been duped to perceive that Obama has weakened law enforcement, instead of continuing to heavily militarize it like his predecessors, as is the actual reality.

It gets worse.  Remember that (potential would-be dictator) Trump now has the reins to the world's most sophisticated surveillance system,  the God-like ability to order extra-judicial killings globally, and to detain US citizens indefinitely.  His cabinet is also full of retired military generals, many with recent experience in counter-insurgency. 

Abroad, Trump has already stepped into the deep fryer, and quite possibly "the Russian bear trap."  After years of trying (remember Obama's red line), Sunni jihadists and their allies (Israel, US, EU, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Jordan...) failed to topple Assad's Shiite regime in Syria.  Trump has declared that he will reverse US policy, and ally with Vladimir Putin and Russia, and Syria's Assad, to fight 'ISIS.'  

Israel, which Trump has declared unconditional support for and claimed he will defend at all costs, has always openly supported the US-backed Sunni efforts to unseat Assad, desirous of regime change in both Syria and Iran.  The biggest deterrent to all of these efforts so far has come in the form of Vladimir Putin and Russia.  

Last week, Israel bombed a Syrian military airport.  Turkey continues to make moves in both Syria and Iraq.  Meanwhile, the Saudi's are still bombing Yemen into the Stone Age.  Alliances are shifting quickly in the Middle East as certain realities, like Soviet intervention, are combined with unique opportunities, such as the election of Donald Trump.  One has to wonder who are the 'players', and who's being played??  When I write names like Putin, Netanyahu, and Trump in the same sentence, I think I know.  Trump appears to have swallowed the hook.  As always, watch for anything that threatens the petrodollar.

The X-Factor

Since Eisenhower delivered his farewell address,  and JFK his  press club speech, and undeniably after Kennedy's assassination, the American public has been aware of the existence of what is colloquially known as "The Deep State."  Kennedy described the Deep State as "monolithic."  The recent release of the 'secret dossier' implicating Trump as a possible Russian puppet shows us otherwise.

While there's little doubt that members of the Intelligence community colluded to subvert a potential Clinton presidency, Trump has enemies of his own within the Deep State, and as Kennedy eloquently stated and demonstrated, they have the ability to take him out.  Kennedy also pointed out that they are 'invisible' and have unlimited budgets and zero accountability.  Taking down regimes is what these people do.  Just replacing the heads of the intelligence agencies won't fix this problem for Trump.  All this, of course, depends on the free press as a route for leaks to reach the public.  It's no secret that Trump & Co are engaged in a running war against the free press.

Note: At this juncture, I feel a moral obligation to echo Glenn Greenwald:

 "...cheering for the CIA and its shadowy allies to unilaterally subvert the U.S. election and impose its own policy dictates on the elected president is both warped and self-destructive. Empowering the very entities that have produced the most shameful atrocities and systemic deceit over the last six decades is desperation of the worst kind. Demanding that evidence-free, anonymous assertions be instantly venerated as Truth — despite emanating from the very precincts designed to propagandize and lie — is an assault on journalism, democracy, and basic human rationality. And casually branding domestic adversaries who refuse to go along as traitors and disloyal foreign operatives is morally bankrupt and certain to backfire on those doing it."

I suppose that's enough...for now.  But, I don't want it to be.  I want to talk about how all of this potentially leads to WW3, or the real possibility that we could see another 9/11 type event when Trump's popularity drops in the sewer.   The Republicans are notoriously great at uniting the people against a common foe.  Check out Bush's approval ratings before and after 9/11, and you'll get the picture.  Sorry for the reality check; I know that absolutely none of this is good.  It's certainly difficult for me to see where the American people come out ahead in the midst of this chaotic ugliness.  Keep your eyes open, and your head on a swivel.  Contingency plans are never a bad idea.

RM  

Thoughts On The Creation Of The State

*Author's Note:  This post (placed here for sharing and quick reference purposes) comes from a lot of places:  My childhood conversations with my father and other travelers long since passed, my anthropological pedigree, some educated speculation, because I love revealing esoteric wisdom in the form of "what-if" stories, a lifetime of the road less traveled, and a great majority is freely adapted, and/or stolen verbatim from the works of  Manly P. Hall, Hakim Bey, Plato, and others much wiser than I.  Is this how it all happened?  Is this how it really is?  Who knows?! It's just another story...*

The Rise of the State

A long, long time ago (no one remembers precisely who, where, or when) the science of mathematics was discovered by ancient women and men...  

This allowed them to count, organize, integrate, and classify natural phenomena.  They could quantify time, eliminate generalities, increase accuracy and precision, map and find locations, and formulate solutions to problems on multiple analytical and operational scales.  As the universe and its machinations were slowly revealed, it became understood that certain laws and rules normally applied, and that nothing happened through accident.  Effect followed cause as sure as night followed day.  

They soon began to track the movements of celestial bodies, as Astronomy (and Music) was impossible before Math.  Vigilant observation of the stars eventually produced predictable patterns.  In the time lost to history, this combination of applied mathematics and astronomy heralded the formation of what has been described as Astro-theology (astrotheology) and defined by some as "Religion based upon the supporting evidence of Nature."

Natural cycles like the four seasons were recognized and timed.  The zodiac and ecliptic became known.  The 25,920 year precessional cycle was tracked and contemplated.  The universe was recognized as a wonderfully complex network of apparent clockwork precision that was ruled by....what?  

Since humans possess only the ability to investigate the physical properties of reality, eventually it was determined that the physical universe itself is just...a symbol...created and ruled by processes, which are not directly observable,  So, through rigorous contemplation of forces, which were physically observable, it was decided that there must be unseen powers at work influencing the operation of the observable universe/reality.  Natural observations were therefore symbolic representations of invisible realities.  Consequently, morals and values were originally developed based on the symbolic representation of the results of natural examination.

As knowledge increased, those who possessed it quickly understood that power came along with it.  This power could be used for either good or evil purposes, depending upon the inclination of the powerful.  Historically speaking, the misplaced use of power has caused unknowable harm to humankind.  Power (knowledge) in the wrong (unethical) hands, and the temptations that accompany it are obviously potentially quite dangerous.  Like Pandora's box though, once the genie of knowledge is out of the bottle, it can't be put back in again.  To solve this dilemma, certain dedicated ancient scholars with advanced knowledge resolved to keep it, and any new knowledge they obtained, secret until an individual had proven themselves worthy, through trials, tests, and initiations, to receive it.  

These elect custodians of knowledge, these "philosopher-priests," unselfishly believed that knowledge existed only to serve humankind, not as a tool to control and enslave it.  They disdained material wealth and the temptations of the flesh which accompany it.  It was understood that a system must be created and utilized to disseminate knowledge to proven-worthy recipients in a carefully controlled environment, lest the knowledge be lost upon the death of the original custodians, or used in an unethical manner detrimental to humanity at large.  Today, we call this ancient instructional system "the mystery schools."

Neophytes were put through years of progressively rigorous discipline and ethical testing before knowledge would be imparted to them.  Thus it was ensured that knowledge deemed crucial to the advancement of humankind wouldn't be misused through greed, selfishness, or ambition.  To the philosopher-priests of the mysteries, ignorance was defined as the inability to accurately discern right from wrong.  Woe to any who 'dwell in darkness.'  The newly indoctrinated priesthood would then establish their own academies, in order to perpetuate the proper dissemination of the sacred wisdom.

The birth of the State is also shrouded in a certain mystery. Something went wrong somewhere.  The old myths (based on reciprocity & redistribution) collapsed before the power of a new "story" based on separation and accumulation.  However it occurred, eventually a portion of this knowledge became known by the people at large; entering the domain of the profane.  Ambitious, unethical men, lacking both complete knowledge and the wisdom to wield it, created their own systems of religious thought and groups of adherents.  Backed by armies and wealth, they toppled the old power structure.  The mystery schools and their acolytes were forced to relegate themselves to an underground existence, which arguably persists to this day.

The precise instant is lost, although the true State lurches into archaeological view sometime around the 4th millennium BCE in Sumer & Egypt. In both cases the realms of war and religion seem to have coalesced to produce figurative and literal pyramid structures, seemingly impossible to conceive without tribute and/or slavery. The centrifugality of the shamanic social is gradually supplanted by the centripetality of power and wealth until a crisis point is reached.  This results in the catastrophic emergence of a "priest-king" and a nascent bureaucracy, the infallible signs of the true State.

The Problem of Money $$$

Even the most primitive king can only be defined by the creation of scarcity and the accumulation of wealth.  This 'double process' can only be reproduced in symbolization. Generally this means that the king is somehow "sacred" and personally symbolizes the very motion of energy in or between surplus and scarcity. But this motion must be impeded if the energy-transfer can only take crude material form (actual cows or jars of wheat etc.). The essential exchange of protection-for-wealth that defines the true State must be symbolized in order to transcend what might be called the inherent egalitarianism of the material, its recalcitrance, its natural resistance to accumulation. "Protection" moreover has no overt material base, whereas wealth does.  Hence, the State will be at a disadvantage in the exchange unless it can present its power in symbolic (non-material) form, as nothing for something.

In the remote past we can discern money in the symbolic exchange and social construction of the sacrifice. When the tribe grows beyond the point where it can re-create itself in the sharing of a sacrificial animal, for instance, we might surmise that one's "due share" could be symbolized by some token. Once the "spiritual content" of these tokens is transferred to an economic sphere outside the sacrifice, the existence of the tokens would then facilitate the "creation of scarcity" by symbolizing the accumulation of wealth. When the symbolic counters themselves are then symbolized by writing, we can speak not only of money but of banking: the centralization of debt at the socio-religio-political focus of power, the Temple.  Thus money would precede the State in this scenario. To put it crudely, money exists for 4000 years before it mutates into a form that makes possible the emergence of the true State.

If we look to the future, we can see even more clearly that money exists beyond the State. In a situation where money is "free" to move across borders in defiance of all political economy, as in neoliberal free-market internationalism, the State can find itself abandoned by money, and re-defined as a zone of scarcity rather than wealth. The State remains by definition mired in production, while money attains the transcendence of pure symbolization.

The true sleight-of- hand however, lies in the fiat-money machinations of the central banks. When all thrones in the world were hopelessly in debt to their own self-created central banks, the focus of power shifted. When governments resign their ancient role of protection, money breaks free at last.  Governments can now provide only nothing for nothing.  Their power is shattered.

Money, the State, and Religion are all powers of oppression, but not the same power of oppression. In fact, when deployed against each other, they can act as powers of liberation. Money "buys freedom" for example; the populist State can suppress the banks, thus freeing its citizens from "money-power"; and religion has been known to deploy its "higher morality" against both economic and political injustice.

Moreover, the State does not appear all at once in its "absolute" form. If "primitive" societies possess institutions which successfully prevent the emergence of the State, the eventual emergence of the State cannot erase these institutions all at once. The "early" State must still co-exist with "customs and rights" that enable Society to resist its power.  The anthropology of "Society against the State" can be extended to a sociology of historical State systems, where some potent institutions and mythemes work against the total accumulation of power.

Money is also held in check in "pre-modern" cultures, not just in so-called "primitive" societies (where money simply fails to appear), but also in quite complex State systems. "Classical civilizations" such as Mesopotamia, Greece, Mesoamerica, Egypt and even Rome retained structures of redistribution of wealth to some extent, if only as bread and circuses; no one could have conceived of a "free" market in such circumstance, since its obvious inhumanity would have violated every surviving principle of reciprocity, not to mention religious law.

It was left to our glorious modern era to conceive of the State as absolute power, & money as "free" of all social restraint. The result might be called the Capital State: the power of money wedded to the power of war. The State appears to know that it was already secretly beaten long ago (all thrones hopelessly in debt...) and has capitulated without a whimper to the triumph of Mammon. With a few exceptions the nations are now falling all over themselves in their eagerness to "privatize" everything from health to prisons to air and water to consciousness itself. "Protection", the only real excuse for the State's existence, evaporates in every sphere of government's influence, from tariffs to "human rights". The State seems somehow to believe it can renounce not only its vestigial power over money but even its basic functions, and yet survive as an elected occupying army!  Even the US, which boasts of itself as the last and final "superpower", is little more than a mercenary force at the bidding of international Capital, capable only of serving the interests of oil cartels and banks. National borders must survive so that political hirelings can divert taxes to "corporate welfare"; and so that huge profits can be made on arbitrage and currency exchange; and so that labor can be disciplined by "migratory" capital. Otherwise the State retains no real function; everything else is empty ceremony, and the sheer terrorism of the "war on crime" (the State's post-Spectacular war on its own poor and different).

RM

UPDATE:  In his writings, Hakim Bey calls the State the quintessentialization of hierarchy & separation, which can, and must, replicate itself on every level of experience from the individual psyche to the laws of nations (achieved via symbolism/language via the medium of $$ in my example). Bey also describes a situation, WHICH I BELIEVE this anarchist has just experienced. Becoming institutionalized, like religion, the State has simply failed to "go away" In fact, in a bizarre extension of the thesis of "Society against the State", we can even re-imagine the State as in institutional type of "custom & right" which Society can wield (paradoxically) against an even more "final" shape of power, that of "pure Capitalism". 

I feel that this perfectly describes the general election process I just personally went through. Here I find/found myself defending "the State's existence" as the Protector of vulnerable populations...the existence of the State's Protection as 'rights.' Since the State is a force of oppression, the cognitive dissonance becomes obvious. This is where the argument blossoms among the anarchists; and it is also the argument between the ideological conservatives (moderates) and the civilizational conservatives. In the end, I'm forced to conclude that what this argument really boils down to is teleological vs. deontological...restated...whether or not one believes that life possesses intrinsic value. This qualifies my 'horror' of the Christians...supposed to appreciate it all...it's all "God's Creation," yet they have abandoned altruism in droves...teleological vs. deontological...seems to encapsulate the whole ballgame.