Worst Case Scenario

"...There's an odd, set, stony quality to it.  It's as if tomorrow has already happened, and there's nothing you can do about it." 

~ Buford's Speech Before Battle of Gettysburg ~

Welcome (back?!) to Missives From The Damned my friends.  In the 'comments' section of the recent post entitled, Happy New Year: Now What?, my target audience for that missive is described as "the average individual who, like myself, is just looking to get their feet planted on firm ground again."  This post assumes a somewhat different trajectory.

On this day, Inauguration Day 2017, my words are instead carefully chosen for a select few.  Today, I write for the thinkers, the ones who have been paying attention.  This post also seeks to find those who have been paying attention, but lack clarity, and/or seek greater insight into what they are seeing.  Finally, this missive is conceived for those who haven't been paying enough attention, know that, and now want to learn 'what' is important to begin to pay attention to.  After reading this, you can decide which group you fall in.  As always, I urge you to follow the links in the text below for a greater understanding of what you read here.

My initial foray into political commentary took place during the run-up to the 2012 Obama v. Romney general election.  At that time, in another forum, I began to sound warning bells concerning the country's divided population, about something I then vaguely referred to as a "coming storm." After the election, I got more specific, speaking out against 'right-wing hate speech,' which I believed would result in even further social division, eventually birthing an undesirable outcome for all Americans.

Flash forward to today, Inauguration Day 2017, and the increase in social division has clearly manifested.  Now, this division seems to be polarized mainly between two distinct camps, described here briefly for heuristic purposes as:  1.  Liberals, who didn't believe for a moment that Trump had a chance to win (like myself admittedly, didn't think we were "there" yet), and have quickly reacted to become self-proclaimed 'Leaders of the Resistance,' and  2.  Conservatives who believe Trump will keep his promises, and are basking in their dreams of a glorious future.  In my sincerest opinion, neither side is prepared for what's probably coming.

Photo editing by Charles Garrett

Think of this next part as a "what-if" story of sorts.  For brevity's sake, I must forgo mention of  my bona-fides in the form of my deeply personal connections to much of this, and dozens more details, that I truly hope you are able to "fill-in" for yourselves.  I'm as 'real' as you are, and available for future discussion in the comment section or via email 'anytime.'  Now, gather 'round, and I'll run it down.

Worst Case Scenario...and it's happening right now

Trump and his followers have made their intentions plain, and we're all getting an idea of what that's starting to look like, and how they plan to get it done.  In a huge nutshell, some of the plans are to repeal and replace all things Obama, gut Social Security and Medicare, implement huge tax cuts for the wealthy, deregulate all things Energy and Environment, eliminate arts, humanities, and social programs, put 'one of their guys' on the Supreme Court, repeal Roe v. Wade, end marriage equality, rebuild the infrastructure to the tune of a trillion dollars, penalize corporations that move jobs overseas, 'rebuild' the military, cozy up to Putin and Russia, start a trade war with China and a new nuclear arms race, etc.  All in all, a pretty tall order, even with the Republican majorities currently in place.

These subjects are ALL worthy of blistering argument, and it's fun to believe the Executive Branch of our government wields certain power(s).  However, let's drop pretense here and now; that time has past.  Since December 23, 1913, there has been an elephant-in-the-room-sized variable involved within US political and economic reality that no President may control, and which may yet prove a hindrance to Trump's agenda:  The Federal Reserve.

The Fed’s balance sheet swelled to $4.5 trillion in 2014 from about $900 billion in 2008 on purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, during three stages of a strategy known as quantitative easing.  During this same time frame (and still) the Fed also kept interest rates at practically 0%.  These actions are the real cause of current stock and bond market inflation.

Photo editing by Charles Garrett

This all points to a Federal Reserve poised to raise rates in 2017 as needed, reduce credit and lending generally, and to adjust rates proportionally as an anti-inflationary measure against Trump's trillion dollar infrastructure scheme along the way.  The battle lines appear clearly drawn, with Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen securely in place until 2018.

Everything could be just fine.  The problem will come, when/if the narcissist-in-chief doesn't take kindly to not getting his way.  It's obvious that he has absolutely no intention of waiting until 2018 and beyond to accomplish certain goals.  We've also had a good long look at his temperament, and disdain for rules, and know full well that he will stoop to ANY depths to 'win.'

If Trump & Co. decide to go all in, between now and Yellen's departure, and take on the Fed, in geopolitical terms particularly, the consequences could be world-changing.  The dollar, currently stable, could quickly once again find itself in danger of losing its preferential status as the world's currency reserve.  This type of economic downturn, coupled with current social unrest, the situations in the Middle East, an unstable EU, and an unpredictable President, make for an extremely heady brew.

Here at home, one can easily imagine stepped-up violence during the current escalation of political protest, or another racially charged, powder-keg incident involving law enforcement, such as the ones that inspired the riots in L.A. and more recently Baltimore, and Ferguson.  Words or actions signalling approval or encouragement and/or support from Trump, the 'law and order' President, could swiftly usher-in a full police crackdown.  All accomplished with the smiling approval of a rabid base, who have been duped to perceive that Obama has weakened law enforcement, instead of continuing to heavily militarize it like his predecessors, as is the actual reality.

It gets worse.  Remember that (potential would-be dictator) Trump now has the reins to the world's most sophisticated surveillance system,  the God-like ability to order extra-judicial killings globally, and to detain US citizens indefinitely.  His cabinet is also full of retired military generals, many with recent experience in counter-insurgency. 

Abroad, Trump has already stepped into the deep fryer, and quite possibly "the Russian bear trap."  After years of trying (remember Obama's red line), Sunni jihadists and their allies (Israel, US, EU, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Jordan...) failed to topple Assad's Shiite regime in Syria.  Trump has declared that he will reverse US policy, and ally with Vladimir Putin and Russia, and Syria's Assad, to fight 'ISIS.'  

Israel, which Trump has declared unconditional support for and claimed he will defend at all costs, has always openly supported the US-backed Sunni efforts to unseat Assad, desirous of regime change in both Syria and Iran.  The biggest deterrent to all of these efforts so far has come in the form of Vladimir Putin and Russia.  

Last week, Israel bombed a Syrian military airport.  Turkey continues to make moves in both Syria and Iraq.  Meanwhile, the Saudi's are still bombing Yemen into the Stone Age.  Alliances are shifting quickly in the Middle East as certain realities, like Soviet intervention, are combined with unique opportunities, such as the election of Donald Trump.  One has to wonder who are the 'players', and who's being played??  When I write names like Putin, Netanyahu, and Trump in the same sentence, I think I know.  Trump appears to have swallowed the hook.  As always, watch for anything that threatens the petrodollar.

The X-Factor

Since Eisenhower delivered his farewell address,  and JFK his  press club speech, and undeniably after Kennedy's assassination, the American public has been aware of the existence of what is colloquially known as "The Deep State."  Kennedy described the Deep State as "monolithic."  The recent release of the 'secret dossier' implicating Trump as a possible Russian puppet shows us otherwise.

While there's little doubt that members of the Intelligence community colluded to subvert a potential Clinton presidency, Trump has enemies of his own within the Deep State, and as Kennedy eloquently stated and demonstrated, they have the ability to take him out.  Kennedy also pointed out that they are 'invisible' and have unlimited budgets and zero accountability.  Taking down regimes is what these people do.  Just replacing the heads of the intelligence agencies won't fix this problem for Trump.  All this, of course, depends on the free press as a route for leaks to reach the public.  It's no secret that Trump & Co are engaged in a running war against the free press.

Note: At this juncture, I feel a moral obligation to echo Glenn Greenwald:

 "...cheering for the CIA and its shadowy allies to unilaterally subvert the U.S. election and impose its own policy dictates on the elected president is both warped and self-destructive. Empowering the very entities that have produced the most shameful atrocities and systemic deceit over the last six decades is desperation of the worst kind. Demanding that evidence-free, anonymous assertions be instantly venerated as Truth — despite emanating from the very precincts designed to propagandize and lie — is an assault on journalism, democracy, and basic human rationality. And casually branding domestic adversaries who refuse to go along as traitors and disloyal foreign operatives is morally bankrupt and certain to backfire on those doing it."

I suppose that's enough...for now.  But, I don't want it to be.  I want to talk about how all of this potentially leads to WW3, or the real possibility that we could see another 9/11 type event when Trump's popularity drops in the sewer.   The Republicans are notoriously great at uniting the people against a common foe.  Check out Bush's approval ratings before and after 9/11, and you'll get the picture.  Sorry for the reality check; I know that absolutely none of this is good.  It's certainly difficult for me to see where the American people come out ahead in the midst of this chaotic ugliness.  Keep your eyes open, and your head on a swivel.  Contingency plans are never a bad idea.

RM